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NHL · Team Correlation Results · team outliers · Last 3 Seasons

NHL Team Correlation Results

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How much do two NHL team markets actually move together, priced off real odds rather than raw hit rates? Each leg is devigged from its own two-sided closing line; multiply the two and you get what the market implies if they were independent. Correlation is how far reality sits from that — i.e. how badly a naive multiply misprices the parlay. Flip either leg’s direction to negate it.

We compared every team against its own prices on 6,144 splits. The top one is bigger than chance alone would produce — worth a look, though several rows for the same team are one pattern, not several findings.

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top 500 of 6,144
TeamComboGamesTeam %League %Diffvs prices
VGKVGK3rd Period WINS + Full Game NO WIN6726.9%10.3%+16.6%+17.3%CLEARS
VGKVGK3rd Period COVERS + Full Game NO WIN9722.7%15.2%+7.5%+13.0%CLEARS
VANVAN2nd Period NO WIN + Full Game NO COVER7159.2%35.9%+23.2%+21.6%
VANVAN2nd Period NO COVER + Full Game NO COVER9846.9%36.0%+10.9%+16.6%
VGKVGK3rd Period WINS + Full Game TT UNDER6732.8%13.5%+19.4%+16.3%
VGKVGK3rd Period COVERS + Full Game TT UNDER9727.8%16.6%+11.2%+12.8%
BOSBOS2nd Period COVERS + Full Game COVERS10254.9%35.3%+19.6%+16.5%
LAKLAK1st Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TT UNDER9746.4%28.7%+17.7%+16.3%
CBJCBJ1st Period WINS + Full Game NO COVER6327.0%14.7%+12.3%+13.7%
VANVAN2nd Period NO COVER + Full Game NO WIN9852.0%33.3%+18.7%+15.9%
VANVAN2nd Period NO WIN + Full Game TT UNDER7156.3%33.2%+23.1%+18.7%
VANVAN1st Period TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN13439.6%24.4%+15.2%+12.4%
PHIPHI3rd Period TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER13614.7%30.5%-15.8%-11.9%
VANVAN3rd Period TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER12830.5%19.6%+10.8%+11.0%
BOSBOS2nd Period WINS + Full Game COVERS6555.4%35.9%+19.5%+19.0%
VANVAN3rd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game NO WIN9845.9%24.7%+21.2%+14.5%
PHIPHI3rd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS10438.5%24.7%+13.7%+13.0%
VANVAN2nd Period NO WIN + Full Game NO WIN7167.6%38.2%+29.4%+18.3%
BOSBOS1st Period TOTAL OVER + Full Game COVERS10242.2%27.0%+15.1%+13.7%
MTLMTL3rd Period TT UNDER + Full Game WINS14122.7%15.9%+6.8%+8.8%
VANVAN3rd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TT UNDER9844.9%30.1%+14.8%+14.1%
BOSBOS2nd Period WINS + Full Game TT OVER6552.3%35.7%+16.6%+18.0%
STLSTL2nd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER951.1%11.4%-10.4%-9.6%
LAKLAK1st Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game NO WIN9736.1%22.9%+13.2%+12.9%
VANVAN2nd Period NO COVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER9736.1%25.6%+10.5%+12.8%
BOSBOS1st Period NO COVER + Full Game TT UNDER10217.6%32.3%-14.6%-13.3%
VANVAN1st Period TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER13431.3%24.4%+7.0%+10.2%
VANVAN2nd Period WINS + Full Game TT OVER7115.5%35.7%-20.2%-16.1%
VANVAN3rd Period COVERS + Full Game WINS9717.5%34.7%-17.2%-13.5%
CBJCBJ2nd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TT UNDER9639.6%25.8%+13.8%+13.0%
FLAFLA3rd Period TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS1284.7%13.8%-9.1%-8.3%
VANVAN3rd Period WINS + Full Game COVERS6619.7%38.2%-18.5%-16.7%
VANVAN3rd Period COVERS + Full Game COVERS9727.8%37.8%-10.0%-13.9%
CBJCBJ1st Period COVERS + Full Game NO COVER9624.0%14.3%+9.7%+9.9%
VANVAN2nd Period NO COVER + Full Game TT UNDER9842.9%32.8%+10.1%+12.8%
VANVAN2nd Period WINS + Full Game WINS7114.1%38.2%-24.2%-14.8%
BUFBUF3rd Period COVERS + Full Game TT OVER10544.8%33.3%+11.4%+12.4%
VGKVGK1st Period NO WIN + Full Game COVERS6417.2%14.5%+2.6%+9.1%
BOSBOS2nd Period WINS + Full Game WINS6550.8%38.2%+12.5%+16.0%
BOSBOS1st Period NO COVER + Full Game NO COVER10220.6%35.9%-15.3%-12.2%
MTLMTL2nd Period TT UNDER + Full Game TT UNDER14117.7%29.7%-11.9%-10.3%
VGKVGK1st Period TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER12920.2%13.4%+6.8%+7.9%
CARCAR1st Period TT UNDER + Full Game TT UNDER14117.7%29.1%-11.3%-10.2%
MINMIN3rd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TT OVER10229.4%19.4%+10.0%+10.3%
CBJCBJ2nd Period TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER9442.6%29.4%+13.1%+12.6%
LAKLAK3rd Period WINS + Full Game WINS6325.4%39.7%-14.3%-16.4%
BOSBOS1st Period TOTAL OVER + Full Game TT OVER10245.1%32.9%+12.2%+12.4%
FLAFLA2nd Period COVERS + Full Game COVERS9720.6%35.3%-14.7%-12.2%
VANVAN2nd Period COVERS + Full Game TT OVER9822.4%32.2%-9.7%-12.6%
CGYCGY1st Period WINS + Full Game TT UNDER7021.4%14.3%+7.2%+9.9%