SGPLABResearch

NBA · Team Correlation Results · team outliers · Last 3 Seasons

NBA Team Correlation Results

On this page

How much do two NBA team markets actually move together, priced off real odds rather than raw hit rates? Each leg is devigged from its own two-sided closing line; multiply the two and you get what the market implies if they were independent. Correlation is how far reality sits from that — i.e. how badly a naive multiply misprices the parlay. Flip either leg’s direction to negate it.

We compared every team against its own prices on 11,520 splits, and none of them stands out beyond what random chance produces at this many splits.

⌕
top 500 of 11,520
TeamComboGamesTeam %League %Diffvs prices
BOSTON CELTICSBOS1st Half COVERS + Full Game TT UNDER15830.4%18.6%+11.8%+11.8%
BOSTON CELTICSBOSQ2 NO WIN + Full Game TOTAL OVER1498.7%25.4%-16.6%-12.4%
BOSTON CELTICSBOSQ2 NO WIN + Full Game TT OVER1505.3%20.8%-15.4%-11.2%
MIAMI HEATMIA1st Half NO COVER + Full Game WINS1496.7%17.0%-10.3%-10.9%
CHARLOTTE HORNETSCHAQ2 COVERS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14436.8%24.5%+12.3%+12.4%
CHARLOTTE HORNETSCHAQ2 WINS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER13735.0%24.6%+10.4%+12.3%
MIAMI HEATMIAQ1 NO WIN + Full Game WINS1467.5%17.3%-9.7%-10.8%
MIAMI HEATMIAQ1 NO WIN + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14512.4%24.7%-12.3%-11.8%
BOSTON CELTICSBOS1st Half TOTAL OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER15525.2%37.8%-12.6%-12.6%
NEW YORK KNICKSNYQ3 WINS + Full Game NO COVER1649.8%17.1%-7.4%-9.9%
CHARLOTTE HORNETSCHAQ2 TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER10431.7%19.4%+12.3%+12.2%
BOSTON CELTICSBOS1st Half COVERS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER15635.3%24.5%+10.8%+10.8%
BOSTON CELTICSBOSQ2 WINS + Full Game COVERS15048.7%32.2%+16.5%+12.3%
CLEVELAND CAVALIERSCLE2nd Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN10716.8%17.7%-0.8%+8.3%
CLEVELAND CAVALIERSCLE2nd Half COVERS + Full Game NO WIN16512.7%15.0%-2.2%+6.0%
DETROIT PISTONSDETQ4 NO WIN + Full Game NO WIN14914.8%32.6%-17.9%-10.5%
BOSTON CELTICSBOS1st Half WINS + Full Game TT UNDER14936.9%19.2%+17.7%+10.8%
LOS ANGELES LAKERSLAL1st Half COVERS + Full Game NO WIN1566.4%16.9%-10.5%-8.3%
DETROIT PISTONSDETQ4 NO COVER + Full Game NO WIN16015.6%30.9%-15.3%-10.1%
CHARLOTTE HORNETSCHA2nd Half TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14050.7%38.3%+12.4%+12.2%
DENVER NUGGETSDENQ1 TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER11742.7%29.9%+12.8%+12.6%
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVESMIN2nd Half COVERS + Full Game WINS16248.8%33.2%+15.6%+11.1%
MIAMI HEATMIA2nd Half WINS + Full Game TT UNDER1439.8%19.0%-9.2%-9.7%
BOSTON CELTICSBOS2nd Half NO WIN + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14928.9%24.5%+4.4%+9.5%
BOSTON CELTICSBOSQ4 WINS + Full Game NO COVER15111.9%19.0%-7.1%-9.9%
CLEVELAND CAVALIERSCLE2nd Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER10627.4%16.7%+10.6%+10.6%
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDEROKCQ3 NO WIN + Full Game COVERS16918.3%17.1%+1.2%+7.1%
CHARLOTTE HORNETSCHAQ2 TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14444.4%33.0%+11.4%+11.4%
MIAMI HEATMIA1st Half NO COVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14814.2%24.5%-10.3%-10.2%
ORLANDO MAGICORL1st Half TOTAL UNDER + Full Game NO WIN15233.6%24.8%+8.7%+9.7%
ORLANDO MAGICORL2nd Half NO COVER + Full Game NO COVER15148.3%36.2%+12.2%+11.3%
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSPORQ1 TOTAL OVER + Full Game WINS14632.2%24.7%+7.5%+9.6%
CLEVELAND CAVALIERSCLEQ4 COVERS + Full Game NO COVER16627.7%19.0%+8.7%+8.6%
CLEVELAND CAVALIERSCLEQ4 TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER11131.5%20.7%+10.9%+10.9%
LOS ANGELES LAKERSLAL1st Half WINS + Full Game WINS15050.7%37.0%+13.6%+10.5%
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIESMEM1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER10526.7%16.5%+10.1%+10.2%
ORLANDO MAGICORL2nd Half NO COVER + Full Game NO WIN15145.7%35.1%+10.6%+10.7%
NEW YORK KNICKSNYQ1 TT UNDER + Full Game TT UNDER12044.2%32.3%+11.9%+12.0%
LOS ANGELES LAKERSLAL2nd Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS9635.4%20.4%+15.0%+11.9%
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDEROKC1st Half TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER17820.2%13.1%+7.1%+7.1%
INDIANA PACERSINDQ2 TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER12629.4%19.4%+10.0%+9.9%
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDEROKCQ2 COVERS + Full Game TT UNDER17711.9%20.4%-8.5%-8.4%
CHARLOTTE HORNETSCHAQ4 TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER13645.6%34.3%+11.3%+11.3%
DALLAS MAVERICKSDALQ3 WINS + Full Game NO COVER13423.1%17.1%+6.0%+8.4%
DENVER NUGGETSDENQ1 COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER16035.0%25.5%+9.5%+9.5%
MIAMI HEATMIA2nd Half COVERS + Full Game TT UNDER1499.4%17.9%-8.5%-8.7%
WASHINGTON WIZARDSWSH2nd Half NO WIN + Full Game WINS14010.0%12.6%-2.6%+5.1%
MIAMI HEATMIAQ1 NO COVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14814.9%24.6%-9.7%-9.7%
LOS ANGELES LAKERSLALQ2 WINS + Full Game NO WIN1497.4%16.4%-9.0%-8.0%
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIESMEMQ1 NO WIN + Full Game TT OVER14032.9%21.3%+11.5%+9.7%