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MLB · Team Correlation Results · team outliers · Last 3 Seasons

MLB Team Correlation Results

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How much do two MLB team markets actually move together, priced off real odds rather than raw hit rates? Each leg is devigged from its own two-sided closing line; multiply the two and you get what the market implies if they were independent. Correlation is how far reality sits from that — i.e. how badly a naive multiply misprices the parlay. Flip either leg’s direction to negate it.

We compared every team against its own prices on 5,120 splits, and none of them stands out beyond what random chance produces at this many splits.

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top 500 of 5,120
TeamComboGamesTeam %League %Diffvs prices
ST. LOUIS CARDINALSSTL1st Inning NO WIN + Full Game TOTAL OVER10848.1%30.2%+17.9%+17.0%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 3 Inn WINS + Full Game WINS17613.6%37.5%-23.9%-12.4%
CHICAGO CUBSCHCFirst 3 Inn WINS + Full Game TOTAL OVER16341.7%27.4%+14.3%+12.7%
TORONTO BLUE JAYSTORFirst 5 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER30017.3%11.0%+6.4%+6.4%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 3 Inn WINS + Full Game COVERS17618.2%36.0%-17.8%-12.3%
CHICAGO CUBSCHCFirst 5 Inn WINS + Full Game TOTAL OVER23738.4%26.3%+12.1%+10.4%
SEATTLE MARINERSSEAFirst 7 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS19812.6%25.1%-12.4%-10.5%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 3 Inn COVERS + Full Game WINS22516.9%32.6%-15.7%-9.9%
SAN DIEGO PADRESSD1st Inning TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS32332.5%24.7%+7.8%+7.9%
CHICAGO WHITE SOXCWS1st Inning TOTAL UNDER + Full Game NO COVER31015.8%24.9%-9.1%-8.0%
MILWAUKEE BREWERSMILFirst 5 Inn TOTAL OVER + Full Game WINS30734.9%24.8%+10.1%+8.2%
ATLANTA BRAVESATLFirst 3 Inn WINS + Full Game TOTAL OVER17718.1%27.4%-9.4%-11.0%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 5 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER28616.8%24.7%-8.0%-8.0%
MILWAUKEE BREWERSMILFirst 5 Inn NO WIN + Full Game NO WIN26728.5%41.2%-12.8%-9.1%
CHICAGO CUBSCHCFirst 3 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER20932.1%24.2%+7.8%+8.9%
SEATTLE MARINERSSEAFirst 3 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER21013.3%22.8%-9.4%-8.7%
PITTSBURGH PIRATESPITFirst 3 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER22744.9%35.3%+9.6%+9.7%
KANSAS CITY ROYALSKCFirst 3 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER23344.6%35.3%+9.4%+9.6%
CHICAGO CUBSCHCFirst 5 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER28432.4%24.7%+7.7%+7.8%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 7 Inn COVERS + Full Game WINS22625.7%42.5%-16.9%-9.6%
MINNESOTA TWINSMIN1st Inning TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER30922.7%30.6%-7.9%-7.9%
SAN DIEGO PADRESSDFirst 7 Inn WINS + Full Game TT OVER6955.1%36.8%+18.2%+17.4%
SAN DIEGO PADRESSDFirst 7 Inn COVERS + Full Game TT OVER7352.1%35.2%+16.8%+16.5%
SEATTLE MARINERSSEAFirst 5 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS30315.8%25.2%-9.3%-7.0%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 3 Inn WINS + Full Game TOTAL OVER17112.9%27.4%-14.6%-9.3%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOL1st Inning WINS + Full Game WINS12913.2%34.6%-21.4%-10.9%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 7 Inn WINS + Full Game WINS22023.6%45.3%-21.6%-9.1%
PITTSBURGH PIRATESPITFirst 3 Inn NO WIN + Full Game WINS1584.4%12.5%-8.0%-7.4%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 7 Inn NO COVER + Full Game WINS2262.7%7.5%-4.8%+2.4%
ST. LOUIS CARDINALSSTLFirst 7 Inn NO WIN + Full Game TT OVER6328.6%14.0%+14.6%+12.8%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 5 Inn WINS + Full Game COVERS28326.1%39.3%-13.1%-7.7%
TORONTO BLUE JAYSTORFirst 5 Inn NO COVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER29631.8%25.0%+6.8%+6.9%
CHICAGO CUBSCHCFirst 7 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER20733.3%25.0%+8.4%+8.2%
SAN DIEGO PADRESSDFirst 5 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS31331.9%25.2%+6.8%+6.7%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 7 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER21817.0%25.0%-8.0%-8.0%
SAN DIEGO PADRESSDFirst 5 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TT OVER15223.7%15.7%+8.0%+8.0%
CLEVELAND GUARDIANSCLE1st Inning WINS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER9730.9%19.8%+11.2%+11.0%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOL1st Inning WINS + Full Game TOTAL OVER12615.1%30.2%-15.2%-10.5%
MILWAUKEE BREWERSMILFirst 5 Inn WINS + Full Game WINS26753.2%41.3%+11.9%+8.1%
OAKLAND ATHLETICSATHFirst 7 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game NO WIN20019.5%25.2%-5.7%-8.6%
MILWAUKEE BREWERSMILFirst 5 Inn NO COVER + Full Game NO WIN30428.9%38.0%-9.1%-7.4%
CHICAGO CUBSCHCFirst 7 Inn WINS + Full Game TOTAL OVER20136.3%25.6%+10.7%+8.5%
COLORADO ROCKIESCOLFirst 7 Inn WINS + Full Game COVERS22026.8%42.2%-15.4%-8.6%
MILWAUKEE BREWERSMILFirst 5 Inn TOTAL OVER + Full Game COVERS30730.3%24.8%+5.5%+6.5%
LOS ANGELES DODGERSLADFirst 3 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS23416.7%25.3%-8.6%-7.5%
SAN DIEGO PADRESSDFirst 7 Inn COVERS + Full Game WINS22352.9%42.5%+10.4%+8.9%
ATLANTA BRAVESATLFirst 3 Inn COVERS + Full Game TOTAL OVER21515.3%24.2%-8.9%-7.6%
MILWAUKEE BREWERSMILFirst 3 Inn COVERS + Full Game WINS21542.3%32.6%+9.7%+8.5%
LOS ANGELES ANGELSLAA1st Inning WINS + Full Game NO COVER11921.0%16.3%+4.7%+8.1%
PITTSBURGH PIRATESPITFirst 7 Inn TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS19934.2%25.1%+9.1%+8.2%