NFL · Price Outliers

NFL Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every NFL game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

NFL · 83 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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83 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
BRYCE YOUNGB. YOUNG	o19.5 Rush Yards alt	+355	+220 ×6	9.3 +2	+23.1%*	−0.9%	CAR @ NO
JAHMYR GIBBSJ. GIBBS	o20.5 Rush Att	+115	-117 ×6	7.5	+5.8%	−0.4%	NE @ DET
BRYCE YOUNGB. YOUNG	o19.5 Rush Yards alt	+320	+220 ×6	7.4 +2	+13.7%*	−0.3%	CAR @ NO
C.J. STROUDC. STROUD	o20.5 Completions alt	-100	-135 ×4	7.4 +1	+6.5%	−0.6%	HOU @ CLE
KEATON MITCHELLK. MITCHELL	u9.5 Rush Yards	+113	-118 ×4	7.3	+6.7%	−4.8%	LAC @ BAL
KAELON BLACKK. BLACK	o49.5 Rush Yards alt	+300	+210 ×9	7.3	+6.0%	+6.6%	SF @ DAL
JARED GOFFJ. GOFF	o22.5 Completions	+102	-130 ×5	7.0	+3.2%	−0.6%	NE @ DET
KEATON MITCHELLK. MITCHELL	o2.5 Receptions	+130	-101 ×6	6.8	+7.6%	−0.4%	LAC @ BAL
C.J. STROUDC. STROUD	o21.5 Completions	+132	+102 ×4	6.4	+4.1%	−0.4%	HOU @ CLE
WOODY MARKSW. MARKS	o1.5 Receptions	-150	-197 ×8	6.4	+2.6%	−0.4%	HOU @ CLE
JAYLEN WARRENJ. WARREN	o2.5 Receptions alt	-135	-176 ×10	6.4	+2.9%	−0.6%	PIT @ CIN
CHUBA HUBBARDC. HUBBARD	o74.5 Rush Yards alt	-112	-145 ×4	6.3 +4	+6.7%*	+0.4%	CAR @ NO
FERNANDO MENDOZAF. MENDOZA	o224.5 Pass Yards alt	+320	+232 ×6	6.3 +1	+9.0%*	+6.6%	SEA @ LV
AARON JONESA. JONES	o39.5 Rush Yards alt	+257	+192 ×8	6.2	+7.3%*	−0.9%	MIN @ GB
VAN JEFFERSONV. JEFFERSON	o1.5 Receptions	+182	+140 ×9	6.2	+9.4%	−0.4%	WAS @ NYG
BRYCE YOUNGB. YOUNG	u8.5 Rush Yards	+105	-122 ×4	6.2	+2.5%	+0.7%	CAR @ NO
JA'MARR CHASEJ. CHASE	o7.5 Receptions	-113	-145 ×11	6.1	+2.7%	−0.6%	PIT @ CIN
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREYC. MCCAFFREY	o14.5 Rush Att	+115	-111 ×6	6.1	+6.2%	−0.6%	SF @ DAL
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREYC. MCCAFFREY	o14.5 Rush Att	+115	-111 ×6	6.1	+6.2%	−0.4%	SF @ DAL
TYLER ALLGEIERT. ALLGEIER	o0.5 Anytime TD	+203	+156 ×8	6.1	−2.3%	−0.6%	LA @ ARI
CHRIS OLAVEC. OLAVE	o69.5 Rec Yards alt	-113	-144 ×8	6.0	−4.4%	−0.9%	CAR @ NO
DOHNTE MEYERSD. MEYERS	o14.5 Rec Yards alt	-150	-194 ×4	6.0	−9.2%	−2.2%	PIT @ CIN
TRE TUCKERT. TUCKER	u2.5 Receptions	-113	-144 ×9	6.0	+3.2%	−0.6%	SEA @ LV
GUNNAR HELMG. HELM	o19.5 Rec Yards	-100	-127 ×5	5.9	+2.3%	+6.6%	JAX @ TEN
JARED GOFFJ. GOFF	o9.5 Rush Yards alt	+610	+400 ×4	5.9	+15.9%*	+0.4%	NE @ DET
MARK ANDREWSM. ANDREWS	u2.5 Receptions	+110	-115 ×5	5.9	+4.8%	−0.4%	LAC @ BAL
JAVONTE WILLIAMSJ. WILLIAMS	o19.5 Rec Yards alt	+220	+170 ×7	5.8	+5.2%	+6.6%	SF @ DAL
CHUBA HUBBARDC. HUBBARD	o99.5 Rush Yards alt	+257	+196 ×9	5.8	+5.6%*	−0.9%	CAR @ NO
MICHAEL MAYERM. MAYER	u20.5 Rec Yards alt	+104	-121 ×4	5.7	+2.0%	−0.6%	SEA @ LV
NOAH GRAYN. GRAY	u1.5 Receptions	-111	-140 ×7	5.7	+3.2%	−0.6%	KC @ ATL
BROCK BOWERSB. BOWERS	u5.5 Receptions	-113	-142 ×8	5.7	+2.2%	−0.6%	SEA @ LV
JA'MARR CHASEJ. CHASE	o7.5 Receptions	-115	-145 ×11	5.7	+1.9%	−0.4%	PIT @ CIN
DESHAUN WATSOND. WATSON	o28.5 Rush Yards alt	+111	-113 ×4	5.7	+5.1%	−0.6%	HOU @ CLE
JAYLEN WARRENJ. WARREN	o25.5 Rec Yards	+110	-114 ×7	5.7	+5.0%	−0.4%	PIT @ CIN
ZACH CHARBONNETZ. CHARBONNET	o2.5 Receptions alt	+205	+160 ×6	5.6 +1	+4.7%*	+6.6%	SEA @ LV
HAROLD FANNIN JR.H. FANNIN JR.	o3.5 Receptions	-122	-153 ×10	5.6	+2.4%	−0.6%	HOU @ CLE
JADARIAN PRICEJ. PRICE	o44.5 Rush Yards	+106	-118 ×4	5.6	+3.0%	−0.6%	SEA @ LV
DRAKE MAYED. MAYE	u21.5 Completions	-100	-125 ×6	5.6	+4.1%	−0.6%	NE @ DET
JERRY JEUDYJ. JEUDY	u14.5 Rec Yards	-100	-125 ×5	5.6	+0.0%	−0.6%	HOU @ CLE
MALACHI FIELDSM. FIELDS	o16.5 Longest Reception	+104	-120 ×7	5.5	+2.0%	−0.9%	WAS @ NYG
JAHMYR GIBBSJ. GIBBS	o29.5 Rec Yards alt	-108	-135 ×5	5.5	+4.9%*	−0.9%	NE @ DET
TREYLON BURKST. BURKS	o2.5 Receptions	+174	+138 ×9	5.5	+7.1%	−0.4%	WAS @ NYG
PATRICK MAHOMESP. MAHOMES	o274.5 Pass Yards alt	+240	+186 ×6	5.5 +1	+4.6%*	+6.6%	KC @ ATL
TETAIROA MCMILLANT. MCMILLAN	o6.5 Receptions alt	+210	+165 ×7	5.5 +1	+4.1%*	+0.4%	CAR @ NO
KAELON BLACKK. BLACK	o69.5 Rush Yards alt	+750	+480 ×6	5.5 +1	+17.4%*	+6.2%	SF @ DAL
CHIG OKONKWOC. OKONKWO	o35.5 Rec Yards alt	+106	-117 ×4	5.5	+2.1%	−0.6%	WAS @ NYG
JAHMYR GIBBSJ. GIBBS	o20.5 Rush Att	+106	-117 ×6	5.5	+1.4%	−0.6%	NE @ DET
AUSTIN EKELERA. EKELER	o19.5 Rec Yards alt	+310	+235 ×7	5.5	+4.1%	+6.6%	WAS @ NYG
JOSH ALLENJ. ALLEN	o249.5 Pass Yards	+163	+130 ×11	5.5 +2	−2.2%	−0.9%	BUF @ NYJ
DESHAUN WATSOND. WATSON	o249.5 Pass Yards alt	+295	+225 ×7	5.5 +1	+5.0%*	+6.6%	HOU @ CLE
AUSTIN EKELERA. EKELER	o9.5 Rec Yards	+113	-110 ×9	5.4	+4.2%	−0.9%	WAS @ NYG
DEVIN SINGLETARYD. SINGLETARY	u7.5 Rush Att	-117	-146 ×4	5.4	+0.6%	−0.6%	WAS @ NYG
RACHAAD WHITER. WHITE	o49.5 Rush Yards alt	+230	+180 ×10	5.4 +1	+14.0%	+6.6%	WAS @ NYG
DYLAN SAMPSOND. SAMPSON	u21.5 Rec Yards	+108	-115 ×8	5.4	+4.0%	−0.6%	HOU @ CLE
JAVONTE WILLIAMSJ. WILLIAMS	o65.5 Rush Yards	+108	-115 ×5	5.4	+4.0%	−0.6%	SF @ DAL
VAN JEFFERSONV. JEFFERSON	o29.5 Rec Yards alt	+733	+475 ×6	5.4	+5.6%	−0.9%	WAS @ NYG
PATRICK MAHOMESP. MAHOMES	o9.5 Rush Yards	+105	-118 ×9	5.3	+1.5%	+6.6%	KC @ ATL
JAYLEN WARRENJ. WARREN	o3.5 Receptions	+170	+136 ×8	5.3	+3.6%	−0.4%	PIT @ CIN
MARVIN HARRISON JR.M. HARRISON JR.	o1.5 Receptions	-136	-170 ×9	5.3	+2.2%	−0.4%	HOU @ CLE
JOSH ALLENJ. ALLEN	u1.5 Pass TDs	+127	+102 ×10	5.3	+3.2%	−0.9%	BUF @ NYJ
DALTON KINCAIDD. KINCAID	o0.5 Anytime TD	+257	+200 ×9	5.3	+4.0%*	−0.6%	BUF @ NYJ
JOSH ALLENJ. ALLEN	o2.5 Pass TDs alt	+300	+230 ×12	5.3	+10.6%	+0.7%	BUF @ NYJ
AUSTIN EKELERA. EKELER	o1.5 Receptions	+108	-114 ×12	5.3	+2.0%	−0.9%	WAS @ NYG
AMON-RA ST. BROWNA. ST. BROWN	u78.5 Rec Yards	+108	-114 ×6	5.3	+4.0%	−0.6%	NE @ DET
JAHMYR GIBBSJ. GIBBS	o97.5 Rush Yards	+108	-114 ×6	5.3	+4.0%	−0.6%	NE @ DET
JAHMYR GIBBSJ. GIBBS	o97.5 Rush Yards	+108	-114 ×6	5.3	+4.0%	−0.4%	NE @ DET
NICO COLLINSN. COLLINS	o4.5 Receptions	+130	+105 ×12	5.3	+4.4%	−0.4%	HOU @ CLE
SAVION WILLIAMSS. WILLIAMS	o29.5 Rec Yards alt	+215	+170 ×7	5.3	+3.5%*	+6.6%	MIN @ GB
KHALIL SHAKIRK. SHAKIR	o0.5 Anytime TD	+277	+215 ×10	5.2	−3.4%	−0.6%	BUF @ NYJ
DARNELL MOONEYD. MOONEY	o1.5 Receptions	+113	-109 ×12	5.2	+3.2%	−0.6%	WAS @ NYG
CAM SKATTEBOC. SKATTEBO	u50.5 Rush Yards	+108	-114 ×7	5.2	+2.6%	−0.6%	WAS @ NYG
JOSH ALLENJ. ALLEN	o2.5 Pass TDs alt	+298	+230 ×12	5.2	+10.1%	+0.4%	BUF @ NYJ
DEVIN SINGLETARYD. SINGLETARY	o1.5 Receptions	+138	+112 ×11	5.2	+3.6%	−0.9%	WAS @ NYG
DARNELL WASHINGTOND. WASHINGTON	o2.5 Receptions	+117	-105 ×11	5.1	+2.6%	−2.2%	PIT @ CIN
CAM SKATTEBOC. SKATTEBO	o0.5 Anytime TD	+148	+120 ×9	5.1	−0.9%	−0.4%	WAS @ NYG
PATRICK MAHOMESP. MAHOMES	o21.5 Completions	-101	-124 ×6	5.1	+0.4%	−0.4%	KC @ ATL
QUINSHON JUDKINSQ. JUDKINS	o19.5 Rec Yards alt	+550	+388 ×5	5.1	+9.0%*	+0.7%	HOU @ CLE
EMMETT JOHNSONE. JOHNSON	o3.5 Receptions alt	+550	+388 ×7	5.1	+9.0%*	+6.6%	KC @ ATL
TREYLON BURKST. BURKS	o0.5 Anytime TD	+500	+360 ×9	5.1	+18.5%	−0.8%	WAS @ NYG
TYLER ALLGEIERT. ALLGEIER	o0.5 Anytime TD	+194	+156 ×8	5.0	−5.2%	−0.4%	LA @ ARI
JERRY JEUDYJ. JEUDY	o29.5 Rec Yards alt	+309	+239 ×7	5.0	+3.6%*	+0.4%	HOU @ CLE
C.J. STROUDC. STROUD	o299.5 Pass Yards alt	+370	+280 ×8	5.0	+4.6%*	+6.6%	HOU @ CLE
TREVOR LAWRENCET. LAWRENCE	o19.5 Completions	-130	-160 ×5	5.0	−4.9%	+0.4%	JAX @ TEN

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders).