CFB · Price Outliers

CFB Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every CFB game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

CFB · 40 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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40 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
MAX DOWLINGM. DOWLING	o0.5 Anytime TD	+700	+290 ×5	13.1	+68.5%*	+1.8%	MASS @ TOL
LUKE KROMENHOEKL. KROMENHOEK	o0.5 Anytime TD	+300	+162 ×4	13.1	+33.6%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
BRYSON HAMMERB. HAMMER	o0.5 Anytime TD	+270	+165 ×5	10.7	+21.9%*	—	MASS @ TOL
JAYDEN CLERVEAUXJ. CLERVEAUX	o0.5 Anytime TD	+120	-125 ×5	10.1	+14.0%*	+1.8%	SAC @ CMU
BROCK TOWNSENDB. TOWNSEND	o0.5 Anytime TD	+325	+212 ×4	8.5	+15.8%*	+0.2%	SAC @ CMU
LUKE KROMENHOEKL. KROMENHOEK	o0.5 Anytime TD	+235	+162 ×4	8.3	+11.9%*	+0.9%	MEM @ USF
HANK BROWNH. BROWN	o199.5 Pass Yards alt	+114	-120 ×4	7.8	+8.6%*	+1.5%	PUR @ IOWA
CHANCE MORROWC. MORROW	o0.5 Anytime TD	+125	-108 ×5	7.5	+7.7%*	+0.2%	BUF @ BALL
TJ HORTONT. HORTON	o0.5 Anytime TD	+115	-116 ×5	7.2	+7.1%*	+1.8%	BUF @ BALL
JAMARION MCDOUGLEJ. MCDOUGLE	o0.5 Anytime TD	+350	+240 ×5	7.2	+11.0%*	+0.2%	BUF @ BALL
CLINT WALKERC. WALKER	o0.5 Anytime TD	+250	+180 ×5	7.1	+8.2%*	+1.8%	BUF @ BALL
JERMANE HAYESJ. HAYES	o49.5 Rec Yards alt	+120	-110 ×6	6.9 +1	+6.4%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
JOHN ALAN RICHTERJ. ALAN RICHTER	o1.5 Pass TDs	-141	-189 ×6	6.9	+1.6%	—	MASS @ TOL
MARCUS STOKESM. STOKES	o0.5 Anytime TD	+190	+142 ×4	6.8	+6.3%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
JAYDEN CLERVEAUXJ. CLERVEAUX	o0.5 Anytime TD	+105	-125 ×5	6.8	+6.3%*	+0.2%	SAC @ CMU
DONOVAN HAMILTOND. HAMILTON	o0.5 Anytime TD	+290	+210 ×5	6.6	+7.1%*	—	BUF @ BALL
JASON WRIGHTJ. WRIGHT	o1.5 Pass TDs	+130	-100 ×5	6.5	+2.3%	—	BUF @ BALL
VAUGHN BLUEV. BLUE	o0.5 Anytime TD	+130	-100 ×5	6.5	+5.4%*	+0.2%	SAC @ CMU
JOHN ALAN RICHTERJ. ALAN RICHTER	o249.5 Pass Yards alt	+170	+130 ×5	6.4	+5.0%*	+1.8%	MASS @ TOL
MANNY COVEYM. COVEY	o0.5 Anytime TD	+300	+219 ×4	6.3	+6.2%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
JAMARION MCDOUGLEJ. MCDOUGLE	o34.5 Rec Yards	+115	-111 ×4	6.2	+7.5%	+0.9%	BUF @ BALL
JAYLIN CARTERJ. CARTER	o0.5 Anytime TD	-135	-174 ×4	6.1	+5.5%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
JEMYRI DAVISJ. DAVIS	o39.5 Rec Yards alt	-105	-133 ×6	6.0	+4.5%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
TATE HOOVERT. HOOVER	o0.5 Anytime TD	+550	+370 ×5	5.9	+10.6%*	+0.2%	BUF @ BALL
JALEN BONDSJ. BONDS	o0.5 Anytime TD	+115	-110 ×5	5.9	+4.0%*	+0.2%	BUF @ BALL
JASON WRIGHTJ. WRIGHT	o0.5 Anytime TD	+220	+170 ×5	5.8	+3.2%*	+0.2%	BUF @ BALL
ADJATAY DABBSA. DABBS	o0.5 Anytime TD	+120	-105 ×5	5.8	+3.7%*	+0.2%	MASS @ TOL
BRYSON HAMMERB. HAMMER	o49.5 Rec Yards alt	+145	+115 ×5	5.7	+3.1%*	+0.2%	MASS @ TOL
JERMANE HAYESJ. HAYES	o39.5 Rec Yards alt	-141	-179 ×5	5.7 +1	+4.9%*	+0.9%	MEM @ USF
JUSTIN RUFFIN JR.J. RUFFIN JR.	o0.5 Anytime TD	+325	+245 ×4	5.5	+3.1%*	+0.2%	SAC @ CMU
JAMAR CURTISJ. CURTIS	o0.5 Anytime TD	+750	+481 ×4	5.5	+13.6%*	+0.9%	SAC @ CMU
CLINT WALKERC. WALKER	o0.5 Anytime TD	+230	+180 ×5	5.4	+2.0%*	+0.2%	BUF @ BALL
JEMYRI DAVISJ. DAVIS	o0.5 Anytime TD	+275	+212 ×4	5.3	+2.2%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
CAMERON SELDONC. SELDON	o0.5 Anytime TD	+400	+295 ×4	5.3	+3.8%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
BRYSON RODGERSB. RODGERS	o49.5 Rec Yards	+123	-100 ×7	5.2	+2.2%*	−4.8%	MEM @ USF
GEORGE BURHENNG. BURHENN	o0.5 Anytime TD	+875	+550 ×4	5.1	+14.8%*	+1.8%	PUR @ IOWA
MUDIA REUBENM. REUBEN	o0.5 Anytime TD	+700	+467 ×4	5.1	+9.9%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
DARYL BARNETT JR.D. BARNETT JR.	o0.5 Anytime TD	+275	+215 ×4	5.1	+1.1%*	+0.2%	MASS @ TOL
D.J. CROWTHERD. CROWTHER	o0.5 Anytime TD	-125	-154 ×4	5.1	+3.4%*	+0.2%	MEM @ USF
MATT COLEMANM. COLEMAN	o0.5 Anytime TD	+400	+300 ×4	5.0	+2.3%*	+0.2%	SAC @ CMU

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 80 prices from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.