NHL · realized SGP correlations
NHL League-Wide Correlations
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How much each NHL same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.
Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)
| SGP combo | Relationship | Corr | Fair @ −110 | n | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STACK | points over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.23 | +201 | 77,640 |
| STACK | points over & game total over | Player × game | +0.21 | +206 | 73,849 |
| STACK | shots 3+ & goals 1+ | Same player | +0.21 | +206 | 920 |
| STACK | points over & team covers | Player × game | +0.20 | +209 | 77,156 |
| STACK | assists over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.19 | +210 | 71,165 |
| STACK | assists over & game total over | Player × game | +0.18 | +214 | 67,584 |
| STACK | assists over & team covers | Player × game | +0.16 | +219 | 70,770 |
| STACK | goals over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.14 | +224 | 121,076 |
| STACK | shots 3+ & points 1+ | Same player | +0.13 | +226 | 953 |
| STACK | goals over & game total over | Player × game | +0.12 | +229 | 115,406 |
| STACK | goals over & team covers | Player × game | +0.11 | +230 | 120,972 |
| STACK | points 1+ & teammate points 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.08 | +241 | 2,299,062 |
| STACK | assists 1+ & teammate points 1+ | Teammates | +0.07 | +244 | 2,299,062 |
| STACK | goals 1+ & teammate assists 1+ | Teammates | +0.06 | +245 | 2,299,062 |
| STACK | goals 1+ & teammate points 1+ | Teammates | +0.05 | +250 | 2,299,062 |
| FLAT | assists 1+ & teammate assists 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.04 | +252 | 2,299,062 |
| FLAT | shots over & game total over | Player × game | +0.04 | +253 | 65,834 |
| FLAT | shots 3+ & assists 1+ | Same player | +0.02 | +259 | 944 |
| FLAT | shots 3+ & teammate shots 3+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.01 | +262 | 2,299,062 |
| FLAT | shots 3+ & teammate assists 1+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +262 | 2,299,062 |
| FLAT | goals 1+ & assists 1+ | Same player | +0.00 | +264 | 935 |
| FLAT | shots 3+ & teammate points 1+ | Teammates | +0.00 | +264 | 2,299,062 |
| FLAT | shots over & team covers | Player × game | -0.00 | +265 | 68,801 |
| FLAT | shots over & team ML (win) | Player × game | -0.00 | +265 | 69,216 |
| FLAT | goals 1+ & teammate goals 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.00 | +265 | 2,299,062 |
| FLAT | shots 3+ & teammate goals 1+ | Teammates | -0.01 | +267 | 2,299,062 |
Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.