NFL · realized SGP correlations
NFL League-Wide Correlations
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How much each NFL same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.
Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)
| SGP combo | Relationship | Corr | Fair @ −110 | n | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STACK | RB rush yds 60+ & RB rush att 15+ | Same player | +0.63 | +132 | 95 |
| STACK | WR rec yds 60+ & WR receptions 5+ | Same player | +0.55 | +144 | 235 |
| STACK | QB pass yds 250+ & QB pass att 30+ | Same player | +0.42 | +163 | 67 |
| STACK | QB pass TDs over & game total over | Player × game | +0.36 | +175 | 2,263 |
| STACK | QB pass yds 250+ & QB pass TDs 2+ | Same player | +0.35 | +176 | 67 |
| STACK | QB pass yds over & game total over | Player × game | +0.26 | +194 | 2,255 |
| STACK | RB rush att over & team covers | Player × game | +0.21 | +206 | 5,268 |
| STACK | RB rush att over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.19 | +210 | 5,652 |
| STACK | QB pass TDs over & team covers | Player × game | +0.19 | +211 | 2,220 |
| STACK | QB pass att 30+ & QB pass TDs 2+ | Same player | +0.17 | +215 | 69 |
| STACK | QB pass TDs over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.16 | +219 | 2,373 |
| STACK | QB pass yds over & team covers | Player × game | +0.11 | +230 | 2,211 |
| STACK | RB rush yds over & team covers | Player × game | +0.10 | +234 | 6,610 |
| STACK | RB rush yds over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.10 | +234 | 7,052 |
| STACK | QB pass att over & game total over | Player × game | +0.09 | +237 | 2,203 |
| STACK | WR rec yds over & game total over | Player × game | +0.09 | +237 | 14,177 |
| STACK | QB pass yds 250+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.08 | +240 | 86,914 |
| STACK | QB pass yds over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.08 | +241 | 2,364 |
| STACK | QB pass att 30+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ | Teammates | +0.07 | +243 | 86,914 |
| STACK | QB pass yds 250+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ | Teammates | +0.07 | +243 | 86,914 |
| STACK | WR receptions over & game total over | Player × game | +0.06 | +247 | 13,444 |
| STACK | QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.05 | +247 | 86,914 |
| STACK | QB pass att 30+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.05 | +249 | 86,914 |
| STACK | QB pass TDs 2+ & RB rush yds 60+ | Same player | +0.05 | +249 | 22 |
| STACK | RB rush att 15+ & WR receptions 5+ | Same player | +0.04 | +250 | 62 |
| STACK | QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ | Teammates | +0.04 | +250 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | RB rush yds over & game total over | Player × game | +0.04 | +252 | 6,734 |
| FLAT | RB rush att 15+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +257 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | RB rush yds 60+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +258 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +259 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | RB rush att 15+ & WR rec yds 60+ | Same player | +0.02 | +259 | 37 |
| FLAT | QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +260 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | RB rush yds 60+ & WR receptions 5+ | Same player | +0.01 | +260 | 71 |
| FLAT | WR rec yds over & team covers | Player × game | +0.01 | +261 | 13,891 |
| FLAT | QB pass yds 250+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +261 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | RB rush att over & game total over | Player × game | +0.01 | +261 | 5,386 |
| FLAT | RB rush att 15+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +262 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | QB pass att 30+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +262 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | WR rec yds over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.01 | +263 | 14,853 |
| FLAT | RB rush yds 60+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ | Teammates | +0.00 | +263 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | QB pass yds 250+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+ | Teammates | +0.00 | +264 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | QB pass att 30+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+ | Teammates | -0.00 | +265 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | QB pass att 30+ & RB rush yds 60+ | Same player | -0.01 | +269 | 22 |
| FLAT | RB rush yds 60+ & WR rec yds 60+ | Same player | -0.02 | +271 | 41 |
| FLAT | WR receptions 5+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.02 | +273 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | WR rec yds 60+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ | Teammates | -0.03 | +275 | 86,914 |
| FLAT | WR receptions over & team covers | Player × game | -0.03 | +276 | 13,172 |
| FLAT | WR rec yds 60+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.03 | +276 | 86,914 |
| TRAP | WR receptions over & team ML (win) | Player × game | -0.04 | +280 | 14,102 |
| TRAP | QB pass yds 250+ & RB rush yds 60+ | Same player | -0.05 | +281 | 21 |
| TRAP | RB rush yds 60+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.05 | +282 | 86,914 |
| TRAP | RB rush yds 60+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ | Teammates | -0.06 | +284 | 86,914 |
| TRAP | RB rush att 15+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.06 | +286 | 86,914 |
| TRAP | QB pass att over & team covers | Player × game | -0.18 | +338 | 2,164 |
| TRAP | QB pass att over & team ML (win) | Player × game | -0.19 | +343 | 2,310 |
Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.