NBA · realized SGP correlations
NBA League-Wide Correlations
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How much each NBA same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.
Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)
| SGP combo | Relationship | Corr | Fair @ −110 | n | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STACK | points 15+ & threes 2+ | Same player | +0.38 | +171 | 497 |
| STACK | points 15+ & rebounds 6+ | Same player | +0.12 | +228 | 530 |
| STACK | points over & game total over | Player × game | +0.10 | +234 | 75,921 |
| STACK | points over & team covers | Player × game | +0.09 | +237 | 76,262 |
| STACK | rebounds 6+ & assists 4+ | Same player | +0.08 | +239 | 519 |
| STACK | points over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.08 | +239 | 77,147 |
| STACK | points 15+ & assists 4+ | Same player | +0.08 | +239 | 521 |
| STACK | threes over & team covers | Player × game | +0.08 | +240 | 67,113 |
| STACK | threes over & game total over | Player × game | +0.08 | +241 | 66,815 |
| STACK | assists over & game total over | Player × game | +0.08 | +241 | 72,597 |
| STACK | assists over & team covers | Player × game | +0.07 | +242 | 72,863 |
| STACK | assists over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.07 | +243 | 73,754 |
| STACK | threes over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.07 | +244 | 67,905 |
| STACK | rebounds over & team covers | Player × game | +0.07 | +244 | 75,467 |
| STACK | rebounds over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.06 | +245 | 76,365 |
| STACK | assists 4+ & threes 2+ | Same player | +0.04 | +251 | 493 |
| FLAT | rebounds 6+ & threes 2+ | Same player | +0.04 | +252 | 496 |
| FLAT | rebounds 6+ & teammate threes 2+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +257 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | assists 4+ & teammate threes 2+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +258 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | rebounds 6+ & teammate assists 4+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +263 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | points 15+ & teammate rebounds 6+ | Teammates | +0.00 | +263 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | points 15+ & teammate assists 4+ | Teammates | +0.00 | +264 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | points 15+ & teammate threes 2+ | Teammates | -0.02 | +271 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | threes 2+ & teammate threes 2+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.02 | +271 | 318,158 |
| FLAT | rebounds 6+ & teammate rebounds 6+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.04 | +277 | 318,158 |
| TRAP | points 15+ & teammate points 15+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.04 | +279 | 318,158 |
| TRAP | rebounds over & game total over | Player × game | -0.04 | +280 | 75,147 |
| TRAP | assists 4+ & teammate assists 4+ (2 players) | Teammates | -0.05 | +281 | 318,158 |
Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.