MLB · realized SGP correlations
MLB League-Wide Correlations
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How much each MLB same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.
Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)
| SGP combo | Relationship | Corr | Fair @ −110 | n | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STACK | total bases 2+ & RBI 1+ | Same player | +0.50 | +150 | 784 |
| STACK | hits allowed 5+ & ER 2+ | Same player | +0.48 | +153 | 357 |
| STACK | total bases 2+ & runs 1+ | Same player | +0.48 | +154 | 788 |
| STACK | hits 1+ & runs 1+ | Same player | +0.41 | +165 | 792 |
| STACK | hits 1+ & RBI 1+ | Same player | +0.41 | +166 | 787 |
| STACK | ER over & game total over | Player × game | +0.36 | +175 | 16,768 |
| STACK | RBI 1+ & runs 1+ | Same player | +0.36 | +175 | 787 |
| STACK | runs over & game total over | Player × game | +0.25 | +196 | 184,520 |
| STACK | K 6+ & outs 18+ | Same player | +0.24 | +200 | 326 |
| STACK | outs over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.23 | +200 | 18,468 |
| STACK | outs over & team covers | Player × game | +0.23 | +202 | 18,102 |
| STACK | hits allowed over & game total over | Player × game | +0.22 | +204 | 19,568 |
| STACK | RBI over & game total over | Player × game | +0.19 | +210 | 185,479 |
| STACK | total bases over & game total over | Player × game | +0.15 | +221 | 182,792 |
| STACK | hits over & game total over | Player × game | +0.14 | +222 | 187,296 |
| STACK | RBI 1+ & teammate runs 1+ | Teammates | +0.14 | +224 | 975,228 |
| STACK | runs 1+ & teammate runs 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.13 | +227 | 975,228 |
| STACK | K over & team covers | Player × game | +0.12 | +227 | 20,680 |
| STACK | K over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.12 | +228 | 21,083 |
| STACK | HR over & game total over | Player × game | +0.11 | +231 | 184,423 |
| STACK | ER 2+ & walks 2+ | Same player | +0.11 | +232 | 355 |
| STACK | total bases 2+ & teammate runs 1+ | Teammates | +0.09 | +238 | 975,228 |
| STACK | hits 1+ & teammate runs 1+ | Teammates | +0.08 | +240 | 975,228 |
| STACK | walks over & game total over | Player × game | +0.07 | +242 | 19,293 |
| STACK | hits 1+ & teammate RBI 1+ | Teammates | +0.06 | +246 | 975,228 |
| STACK | total bases 2+ & teammate RBI 1+ | Teammates | +0.06 | +246 | 975,228 |
| STACK | RBI 1+ & teammate RBI 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.05 | +248 | 975,228 |
| STACK | runs 1+ & teammate HR 1+ | Teammates | +0.04 | +250 | 975,228 |
| STACK | total bases 2+ & teammate total bases 2+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.04 | +251 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | hits 1+ & teammate hits 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.04 | +252 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | hits 1+ & teammate total bases 2+ | Teammates | +0.04 | +252 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | total bases 2+ & teammate HR 1+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +258 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | total bases over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.02 | +259 | 190,014 |
| FLAT | hits 1+ & teammate HR 1+ | Teammates | +0.02 | +259 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | hits over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.02 | +259 | 194,745 |
| FLAT | hits over & team covers | Player × game | +0.01 | +260 | 191,099 |
| FLAT | HR 1+ & teammate HR 1+ (2 players) | Teammates | +0.01 | +260 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | runs over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.01 | +260 | 191,775 |
| FLAT | total bases over & team covers | Player × game | +0.01 | +261 | 186,411 |
| FLAT | RBI over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.01 | +261 | 192,768 |
| FLAT | RBI 1+ & teammate HR 1+ | Teammates | +0.01 | +261 | 975,228 |
| FLAT | HR over & team ML (win) | Player × game | +0.01 | +262 | 191,700 |
| FLAT | RBI over & team covers | Player × game | +0.01 | +262 | 189,158 |
| FLAT | runs over & team covers | Player × game | +0.01 | +262 | 188,140 |
| FLAT | HR over & team covers | Player × game | +0.01 | +263 | 188,812 |
| TRAP | hits allowed 5+ & walks 2+ | Same player | -0.04 | +279 | 354 |
| TRAP | walks over & team ML (win) | Player × game | -0.07 | +288 | 20,042 |
| TRAP | walks over & team covers | Player × game | -0.07 | +291 | 19,636 |
| TRAP | K 6+ & walks 2+ | Same player | -0.08 | +293 | 338 |
| TRAP | K over & game total over | Player × game | -0.12 | +307 | 20,295 |
| TRAP | K 6+ & hits allowed 5+ | Same player | -0.12 | +310 | 340 |
| TRAP | K 6+ & ER 2+ | Same player | -0.15 | +320 | 342 |
| TRAP | outs 18+ & hits allowed 5+ | Same player | -0.15 | +322 | 333 |
| TRAP | outs 18+ & walks 2+ | Same player | -0.17 | +331 | 331 |
| TRAP | hits allowed over & team ML (win) | Player × game | -0.22 | +355 | 20,319 |
| TRAP | hits allowed over & team covers | Player × game | -0.22 | +358 | 19,907 |
| TRAP | outs over & game total over | Player × game | -0.26 | +375 | 17,761 |
| TRAP | outs 18+ & ER 2+ | Same player | -0.26 | +380 | 334 |
| TRAP | ER over & team ML (win) | Player × game | -0.36 | +444 | 17,404 |
| TRAP | ER over & team covers | Player × game | -0.36 | +444 | 17,388 |
Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.