NFL · margins & totals

NFL Key Numbers

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A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where NFL games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 1999–2026. 15.1% of the last 7,411 games were decided by exactly 3.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 0–27

Full game · how often each margin came up7,411 games · 1999–2026 · showing margins 0–28

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
3	15.13%	1121	11.04pt	23.5%	1180	17.7%
7	9.04%	670	5.36pt	47.1%	500	8.2%
6	6.05%	448	1.72pt	38.1%	357	6.7%
10	5.48%	406	3.47pt	57.9%	217	8.3%
4	4.90%	363	-0.15pt	28.4%	342	3.5%
14	4.87%	361	2.98pt	69.5%	90	4.4%
1	4.12%	305	0.07pt	4.3%	546	3.7%
2	4.05%	300	-0.46pt	8.4%	169	3.6%
8	3.75%	278	-2.01pt	50.9%	100	0.0%
17	3.63%	269	1.84pt	76.8%	16	—
5	3.62%	268	-3.93pt	32.0%	165	1.8%
13	2.73%	202	0.72pt	64.7%	73	1.4%
21	2.67%	198	1.51pt	85.0%	—	—
11	2.33%	173	0.13pt	60.3%	80	3.8%
18	2.31%	171	0.19pt	79.1%	4	—
24	2.16%	160	1.06pt	89.4%	1	—
20	2.13%	158	0.40pt	82.4%	1	—
16	2.10%	156	-0.86pt	73.1%	14	—
12	1.67%	124	-2.13pt	61.9%	33	3.0%
28	1.63%	121	0.97pt	94.2%	—	—
9	1.59%	118	-3.02pt	52.4%	153	0.0%
15	1.48%	110	-1.69pt	71.0%	12	—
27	1.27%	94	0.32pt	92.6%	1	—
31	1.17%	87	0.69pt	96.4%	—	—
19	1.16%	86	-1.33pt	80.2%	3	—
23	1.16%	86	-0.48pt	87.3%	—	—
25	1.12%	83	-0.09pt	90.5%	—	—
22	1.08%	80	-1.07pt	86.1%	2	—
26	0.78%	58	-0.67pt	91.3%	—	—
35	0.59%	44	0.28pt	98.3%	—	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.