NBA · margins & totals

NBA Key Numbers

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A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where NBA games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 2003–2027. 6.1% of the last 32,277 games were decided by exactly 7.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 0–30.5

Full game · how often each margin came up32,277 games · 2003–2027 · showing margins 0–26

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
7	6.06%	1957	0.18pt	41.5%	69	4.3%
5	6.00%	1937	0.29pt	29.6%	71	8.5%
6	5.92%	1912	0.00pt	35.5%	82	4.9%
8	5.84%	1886	0.19pt	47.4%	57	5.3%
3	5.49%	1772	0.16pt	18.1%	94	2.1%
4	5.43%	1752	-0.28pt	23.6%	92	5.4%
9	5.38%	1737	0.11pt	52.8%	56	1.8%
2	5.24%	1690	0.55pt	12.6%	86	1.2%
10	4.70%	1517	-0.20pt	57.5%	42	4.8%
11	4.41%	1425	0.11pt	61.9%	50	0.0%
1	3.95%	1276	-1.28pt	7.4%	117	8.5%
12	3.91%	1263	-0.10pt	65.8%	32	6.3%
13	3.61%	1165	0.06pt	69.4%	28	0.0%
0	3.45%	1114	—	3.5%	1	—
14	3.18%	1027	-0.09pt	72.6%	29	3.4%
15	2.93%	945	-0.07pt	75.5%	8	—
16	2.82%	909	0.19pt	78.3%	10	—
17	2.32%	748	-0.15pt	80.7%	11	—
18	2.12%	685	0.01pt	82.8%	6	—
19	1.91%	615	-0.09pt	84.7%	6	—
20	1.87%	603	0.06pt	86.5%	—	—
21	1.72%	554	0.07pt	88.3%	—	—
22	1.43%	460	-0.06pt	89.7%	—	—
23	1.25%	402	-0.04pt	90.9%	1	—
24	1.14%	368	-0.04pt	92.1%	—	—
25	1.12%	361	0.13pt	93.2%	—	—
26	0.85%	273	-0.11pt	94.0%	—	—
27	0.79%	256	0.01pt	94.8%	—	—
28	0.71%	230	-0.02pt	95.5%	—	—
29	0.67%	215	0.00pt	96.2%	—	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.