CFB · margins & totals
CFB Key Numbers
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A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where CFB games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 2023–2026. 7.9% of the last 14,527 games were decided by exactly 3.
The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.
Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.
| Won by ⇅ | Landed % ⇅ | Spike ⇅ | Cum % ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4.97pt | 14.2% | |
| 7 | 4.84pt | 29.5% | |
| 14 | 2.63pt | 46.1% | |
| 10 | 2.27pt | 37.0% | |
| 21 | 2.30pt | 60.7% | |
| 1 | 0.72pt | 3.7% | |
| 4 | 0.46pt | 17.4% | |
| 28 | 2.02pt | 73.8% | |
| 17 | 1.57pt | 51.9% | |
| 6 | -0.10pt | 22.3% | |
| 24 | 1.38pt | 66.0% | |
| 2 | -0.62pt | 6.3% | |
| 8 | -0.81pt | 32.0% | |
| 5 | -3.02pt | 19.5% | |
| 35 | 1.34pt | 83.2% | |
| 11 | 0.53pt | 39.1% | |
| 18 | 0.37pt | 53.9% | |
| 27 | 0.51pt | 70.7% | |
| 20 | 0.13pt | 57.0% | |
| 31 | 0.84pt | 77.5% | |
| 13 | -0.01pt | 42.1% | |
| 25 | 0.10pt | 67.7% | |
| 34 | 0.52pt | 81.1% | |
| 42 | 1.01pt | 89.7% | |
| 15 | -0.90pt | 47.6% | |
| 22 | -0.85pt | 62.1% | |
| 16 | -1.10pt | 48.9% | |
| 19 | -1.11pt | 55.2% | |
| 38 | 0.57pt | 86.0% | |
| 32 | 0.07pt | 78.8% |
Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.