NFL Blowout Index

Which NFL teams win or lose big against the closing spread. An average against the number hides how a team got there: +4 can be covering by 3 every night or winning by 25 and losing by 15. Index 100 = a typical team’s share of games decided by 10+ pts against the closing spread; the two columns beside it split that into big covers and big misses. Click a team for every game.

Result vs the number = final margin plus the team’s consensus closing spread. League-wide in this view, 22% of games beat the number by 10+ and 22% missed it by 10+ (274 team-games). We checked whether this is a team trait: across 2024–26 a team’s share of lopsided results in one half of a season says almost nothing about the other half, or about next season (correlations near zero in every sport; MLB is at most about +0.1 once it’s measured against the moneyline rather than the run line, which is within noise). Read it as how a record was built, not as a forecast. The alt columns are real bets: flat 1 unit on the team at its closing spread −10, and on the opponent at the mirror line, at the median closing price across the sportsbooks, graded at the rung each was priced at (half a point off when the exact rung wasn’t posted). League-wide here that returned -4.3% on 274 bets at a typical +345 — the vig on longshot rungs, which is what a team has to overcome to show up green.